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  • February 1 @ 3pm - Hierarchical Models (Woo Chang)

    • Readings:

      •  Efron and Morris, 1977. ”Stein’s Paradox in Statistics”, Scientific American. [pdf]

      • Justin Esarey’s Introduction to Hierarchical Linear Models [Youtube]

    • Supplementary:

      • Gelman and Hill. Data Analysis Using Regression and Multilevel/Hierarchical Models - Chapter 12-14, 17

      • Jackman - Bayesian Analysis for the Social Sciences - Chapter 7

      • Reeves and Gimpel, 2012. ”Ecologies of Unease: Geographic Context and National Economic Evaluation”. Political Behavior. [pdf]

      • Gelman, Shor, Bafumi and Park, 2007. “Rich State Poor State, Red State, Blue State: What’s the matter With Connecticut?” Quarterly Journal of Political Science. [pdf]

      • Efron and Morris, 1975. “Data Analysis Using Stein’s Estimator and its Generalizations”, Journal of the American Statistical Association. [pdf]

    • Data and Replication Materials [zip]

    • Simulation of James-Stein Estimator [R code]

  • February 15 @ 3pm** - Machine Learning and Classification (Pablo and Andrew)

    • Readings:

      • Barber, D. 2012. “Bayesian Reasoning and Machine Learning”. Chapter 10. (Read chapter 8 and 9 for background and notation.) [pdf]

      • Cantú, F. and Saiegh, S. 2011. “Fraudulent Democracy? An Analysis of Argentina’s Infamous Decade Using Supervised Machine Learning”. Political Analysis. [pdf]

    • Supplementary:

      • Conway, A. and Myles White, J. 2012. “Machine Learning for Hackers”. Chapter 3. (for a programming-oriented perspective, with lots of useful R code)

      • Hastie, Tibshirani, and Friedman. 2009. “The Elements of Statistical Learning”. Chapters 2, 6, and 7 (for a more formal treatment)

    • Example Code [R code]

    • Slides and Simulation code [zip file]

  • March 8 @ 3pm - Copulas (Drew and Sebastian)

    • Readings:

Nelson, Roger B. (2006) Introduction to Copulas, 2nd ed. Springer - Chapter 2 [link]


Quiroz Flores, Alejandro. (2011) “Copula Functions for Approval Ratings and Endogenous Political Events” Working Paper [pdf]

* Supplementary:


The rest of the Nelson book (It’s the standard text on the subject)


Smith, Murray D. (2003) “Modelling sample selection using Archimedean Copulas” Econometrics Journal. v.6 pp. 99-123 [link]


Czado, Claudia (2009) “Pair-copula constructions of multivariate copulas” Copula Theory and Its Applications. ed. Jaworski, Durante, Haerdle and Rychlik [link]

* Example Code [[zip file]](

* Drew's Presentation [[pdf]](

* Sebastian's Presentation [[pdf]](
  • March 29 @ 3pm - Missing Data (Pablo and Fran and Emily)

    • Readings:

Honaker and King, 2010. “What to Do about Missing Values in Time-Series Cross-Section Data”. AJPS  [link]


Puma, 2009. “What to Do When Data Are Missing in Group Randomized Controlled Trials”. NCEE Paper. [link]

* Supplementary:

  * Ross, 2006. "Is Democracy Good for the Poor?". AJPS [[link](]

  * Martel, 2006. "Scientific Progress in the Absence of New Data: A Procedural Replication of Ross". NYU mimeo. [[link](]

* Emily Presentation [[pdf](]

* Fran and Pablo Presentation [[pdf](]

* Example Code [[zip](]
  • Date April 19 - Sensitivity Analysis (Drew and Woo Chang and Emily)

    • Readings:

      • Conley et al,. 2012. “Plausibly Exogenous”. Review of Economics and Statistics.

      • Imbens G. 2003. “Sensitivity to exogeneity in program evaluation.” The American Economic Review. 93(2):126-132.

      • Rosenbaum, Paul R. 2010. Observational Studies. Chapter 4, “Sensitivity to Hidden Bias” (should be available via SpringerLink - if not, you should be able to get an overview in Design of Observational Studies, Ch 3 Section 3.4 to the end of the chapter)

    • Supplementary Readings:

      • Remaining Rosenbaum readings

      • Harada, Masataka (2012) “Generalized Sensitivity Analysis” (working paper) [Available here]

      • Frank KA. 2000. “Impact of a confounding variable on a regression coefficient.” Sociological Methods Research. 29(2):147-194.

    • Code for generalized sensitivity analysis (a la Imbens (2003)) [github]

  • Date May 17 - Networks (Fran and Andrew)

    • Readings TBD
  • Date TBD - IRT (Sebastian and Maria)

    • Readings TBD